So let’s run the numbers as if his 2020 played exactly as predicted, but now we’ll adjust his injury risk number down 20%. Every team in baseball lost a boatload of money in 2020, and is cutting payroll anywhere they can. Bowden: A Nolan Arenado trade is all but inevitable. What can Cleveland get for Francisco Lindor? Prior to this season, ZiPS projected him for 4.6 fWAR in 2021, then 3.7 in 2022, then worse and worse each year from there. – The Athletic. The bottom line is that we need to adjust his projections down due to either performance decline, injury risk, or a mix of both. The Rangers have been tied to Rockies' third baseman Nolan Arenado in trade rumors. Rockies get: INF/OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., C Danny Jansen, SS/3B Jordan Groshans (MLB’s No. In fact, there have maybe been 1 or 2 years in the last decade+ in which this wasn't the case. Still, L.A. keeps its top two prospects (Dustin May and Gavin Lux), using enviable depth and resources to land an impact player. (For his career, Arenado has a 108 WRC+ away from Coors, which is above average, yes, but not by much, and the trend is definitely downward.). If you think the poor numbers were due entirely to injury, it means that another injury could knock him out in a similar way in the future. It is an odd fit, but a fit that would represent acquiring an elite player. Nolan Arenado wurde im April 1991 in Newport Beach im US-Bundesstaat Kalifornien geboren. They can’t justify not making a moves to improve project to win 94 games. First, Nolan Arenado is the face of the Rockies and just a reminder, he signed an 8-year extension worth $260 million during Spring Training. Do you think the Rockies could find a way to move him if they take on bad contracts? Phillies get: 3B Nolan Arenado. It gets worse. Braves get: 3B Nolan Arenado, OF Charlie Blackmon and cash, Rockies get: CF Ender Inciarte, RHP Kyle Wright (MLB’s No. The Phillies. The White Sox could fill second base and center field with Madrigal and fellow prospect Luis Robert, respectively, allowing Moncada to avoid another position switch. 4 prospect). Why it could work: Who says the Phillies can't still win the offseason for the second year in a row? Father Time is undefeated in this regard. Potentially moving to a new team means that split takes on more weight, as he won’t be getting the benefit of thin air anymore — it’s more likely to be below-average to average at best. As unlikely as that may seem, MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reported last week that the Rockies “are willing to listen” to trade offers for Arenado and have received numerous calls about him. NolanArenado has been traded by theColorado Rockies to the St. Louis Cardinals. In a normal year, our model would weigh the most recent year about 30% more than the pre-season projection (based on the Marcel 6-3-1 method, which weighs the most recent year at 60% and the previous year at 30%). The Rockies had the opportunity to either go all-in or rebuild last year and chose neither. It’s a red flag. But I’m not counting on it. Winn grew up in Longmont, Colo., about 50 miles from Denver, and was the 15th overall pick in the 2018 Draft. Nolan James Arenado (* 16. In return, Colorado gets a talented young hitter and versatile defender who is under affordable team control through 2024 (Gurriel Jr.). by johnbitzer | Sep 23, 2020 | Explaining valuations, Rockies | 6 comments. Leben und Karriere. His WRC+ was 76, which was 24% below league average. Is there any team why a darker future going forward? *Given that, Arenado will not opt out at the end of 2021 and walk away from the remaining $164M. No-trade clause: Nolan can say no to any potential deal anyway, so teams may think twice about spending the time negotiating a deal that may not even happen. But to account for his market value as a star, we’ve added 10% to his field value and skewed his range to the high side, which gets us to -$43.7M. The third baseman could opt out after the '21 campaign, giving Toronto a small window to build a winning team while it is guaranteed to have Arenado on the roster. Although we were wrong about whether the Rockies would trade him, the analysis of his valuation should be … To get a prospect out of it, the Rockies would have to swap Arenado with someone whose value is even more in the red — like, say, Jason Heyward of the Cubs. Here’s the problem with that: you have to explain 2020 somehow. Even if Arenado gave his consent, Colorado would have to balance lightening its payroll with acquiring the sort of young players or prospects that could help the club move forward. In other words, Arenado is not going anywhere. Yes, they could. Blackmon, who happens to be a Georgia native and a Georgia Tech alum, also has player options for 2022 ($21 million) and '23 ($10 million), and it seems likely that he will take at least the first one. There’s the fact that Arenado can opt out after the 2021 season. Who says no: The Rockies. And then there’s his full no-trade clause, which he would have to waive. (That’s a big reason why no one traded for a highly-paid veteran at the deadline this year; quite the opposite: it created more of a premium in trade capital for low-paid players like Austin Nola.) Doing it that way — which we believe is, if anything, conservative, we get Arenado’s next few years, using our blend of fWAR and WARP, at 3.8, 3.7, 3.2 and on down from there. And he’s now entering his 30s, which means his overall injury risk is increasing. (He’s not getting more.). But he has been the subject of trade talks, according to some reports, but there are many roadblocks for the Rockies to get over in order for Arenado to be traded. Where does that get us? ©️ 2021 Invisibleinkwell Productions LLC. The Rockies, meanwhile, would address three main areas of need -- center field, pitching and catcher -- in addition to getting serious payroll relief. It might be asking a lot for Atlanta to take on Arenado and Blackmon’s contracts, but Colorado chipping in, say, $40 million or so (essentially, Blackmon’s salary over 2020-21) makes it more palatable. They might have to bite the bullet and trade Story and (gasp) Marquez. 7 prospect) and C/1B Zack Collins (White Sox No. But since they know he won’t, they’re less likely to be interested. The deal includes a full no-trade clause and allows Arenado to opt out after the 2021 season. Now Gray’s value has tanked as well, and Story is really the only trade chip left. Even if the Phillies pay the tax for one season, they have Jake Arrieta coming off the books next offseason, which would help them reset the penalty in 2021. And since every team can see this, if they traded for him this winter, they’d actually prefer that he opted out, to save them from the obligation of absorbing all of those negative-value years at premium prices. It would be surprising to see L.A. trade either one of those youngsters this offseason. Why it could work: The White Sox have been trying to top off their rebuild by adding a star from outside the organization, landing Yasmani Grandal but missing on Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler over the last two winters. But it seems like a longshot at best for the Nationals. General manager Matt Klentak said he expects Bohm to contribute at some point in 2020. And since every team can see this, if they traded for him this winter, they’d actually, that he opted out, to save them from the obligation of absorbing all of those negative-value years at premium prices. But the Cubs are also crying poor, and will likely either non-tender or trade Bryant to save money, so it’s unlikely they’d want to take on even more money with Arenado’s contract. As I’ve written before, this resembles the Giancarlo Stanton situation. And if he does, will it ruin more seasons? 34 prospect), RHP Adonis Medina (Phillies' No. But as a Rockies fan, he needs to go and the Rockies need to pick a direction. He’s set to earn $35M next year, and each of the three after that (plus another $32M in 2025 and $27M in 2026). Jansen struggled with the bat in '19 and may have been passed in Toronto by Reese McGuire, but the recent top-100 prospect makes for a nice buy-low play for a team with a catching need. I think next year will tell a lot. This is a hard truth. That’s why he’d be foolish to opt out after next season, at which point he’ll still be owed $164M. by Reuben Gasee (article) and Milos Kitanovic (video) December 21, 2019 at 12:53 AM Updated on December 23, 2019 at 8:25 AM. Terms of the deal were not immediately available, but the Rockies will be picking up a significant portion of Arenado’s contract. It has been an awkward few months between the Rockies and franchise player Nolan Arenado.Although the superstar third baseman signed a club … The Blue Jays remove the burden of playing third base from Vlad Jr. and either see how he handles first or use him as a designated hitter and allow his bat to do the talking. The Colorado Rockies have few realistic options for trading superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, and still rumors about a deal persist. Most teams don’t now. Arenado signed the deal last Spring Training, after the Rockies had been to the postseason the previous two years. 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